lidar
All posts

Cold email vs Reddit vs ads: the real cost per customer

Worked arithmetic for a small SaaS, with every assumption stated so you can substitute your own. Includes what our own infrastructure costs to run.

Research11 min read

Every channel comparison you have read was written by somebody selling one of the channels. This one is no exception, so here is the deal: we will state every assumption, show the arithmetic, and publish our own infrastructure costs. Substitute your numbers and the conclusion may well flip. That is fine. The model is the useful part.

The scenario

A B2B SaaS at €29 a month. Annual contract value €348, and with typical churn, lifetime value somewhere around €500. That is the number every channel has to fit inside.

The rule of thumb most people use is that acquisition should cost no more than a third of lifetime value, so the ceiling is roughly €165 per customer. Hold that number in your head.

Channel 1: Paid search

Assumptions, all adjustable:

StepRateRunning cost
Cost per click, commercial B2B term€6€6 per visitor
Landing page to trial3%€200 per trial
Trial to paid20%€1,000 per customer

Against a €165 ceiling, that is not close. And the numbers above are kind: competitive B2B categories routinely clear €15 a click, which puts you at €2,500 per customer.

Paid search starts working when contract values reach four figures, or when you are bidding on very long-tail terms with little competition. For a €29 product on category keywords, the arithmetic simply does not close, and no amount of landing page optimisation fixes a 6x gap.

Channel 2: Cold email

The tooling genuinely is cheap. Domains, a handful of inboxes, a sending platform and a data source lands somewhere around €150 a month.

StepRateMonthly outcome
Emails sent5,000Across several warmed domains
Positive reply rate0.5%25 conversations
Conversation to customer20%5 customers
Tooling€150€30 per customer in cash

Thirty euros per customer looks like the winner, and this is exactly where most channel comparisons stop. Three things are missing.

The hours. List building, copy iteration, inbox warming, deliverability triage and replying is realistically twenty hours a month. At €50 an hour that is €1,000, taking the true cost to about €230 per customer. Above the ceiling.

The fragility. Deliverability degrades. Domains get burned, sending reputation collapses, and the channel has bad months for reasons you cannot see.

The compliance surface. Under GDPR, unsolicited B2B email to EU recipients needs a lawful basis and a genuine opt-out path. It is workable, it is not free, and pretending otherwise is how people end up with a problem that costs far more than any CAC number.

Channel 3: Reddit by hand

Fifteen minutes a day across six to eight communities, replying to people who are describing the problem you solve. Cash cost: zero.

StepRateMonthly outcome
Time7.5 hours€375 at €50/hour
Threads worth answering~30About one a day
Reply to site visit2.5 visits each75 visits
Visit to signup30%22 signups
Signup to paid25%5 customers, €75 each

The 30% visit-to-signup rate is the line people object to, and it is the one we are most confident about. It is not a landing page trick. The person clicking described this exact problem in public ten minutes ago, so they are not evaluating a category, they are checking whether the thing someone just described to them exists.

The catch is the ceiling. Roughly thirty qualified threads a month in a typical niche is not a number you can multiply. Doubling the time does not double the threads, because the threads are not there.

Channel 4: Reddit with the reading automated

Same channel, with the scanning removed. Reading every new post across eight communities is the bulk of the time and none of the value.

StepRateMonthly outcome
Software€14 to €79Per product, per month
Time3 hours€150, replying only
Threads surfaced~45Wider coverage, nothing missed on busy days
Customers7€23 each

The gain is not magic, it is coverage and consistency. A person reading manually misses Thursday because something broke in production. The threads missed on Thursday are gone, and they were disproportionately the good ones, because nobody else answered them either.

Paid search€1,000

Breaks down entirely below four-figure contract values.

Cold email€230

€30 in cash, the rest in hours nobody counts.

Reddit by hand€75

Free in cash, capped by your attention.

Reddit, reading automated€23

Same channel, better coverage, fewer hours.

Fully loaded cost per customer under the assumptions above, with time valued at €50 an hour. Change any input and the ranking can change.

What our side costs to run

Since we are making a cost argument, here is ours. Reddit is read per subreddit rather than per customer, through Apify, which bills about $0.02 to start a run plus $0.004 per result.

Six subreddits at fifteen posts each is ninety results, so roughly $0.38 a day to read them. That figure does not change if one customer is watching those subreddits or forty, because it is the same read. Scoring adds one language model call per project per batch of posts.

This is why the entry plan is €14 rather than €99: the marginal cost of an additional customer watching an already-watched community is close to zero. We would rather have the volume. There is no trick in it and the pricing page is the whole story.

What this actually means for you

  • Under €30 a month: paid search is arithmetically out. Reddit and content are the realistic options.
  • €30 to €200 a month: Reddit for the first hundred customers, then layer content on top. Cold email if your market has clean, findable contact data.
  • Above €500 a month: every channel opens up, and paid search starts making sense again.
  • Any price, month one: start where the cash cost is zero. Reddit’s real advantage early is not the CAC, it is that you talk to people and find out why they do not buy.

That last point is the one we would defend hardest. The channel’s underrated output is not customers, it is the thirty conversations that tell you what is wrong with your positioning. No ad account has ever produced that.

If the arithmetic points you at Reddit, the practical version is in the lead generation guide, and the six-week starting plan is finding your first 100 users.

See who is describing your problem today.

Lidar reads the subreddits that fit your product every day and shows you the posts worth answering. You decide who to reply to.